Modeling the possibilities of managing the level of production and consumption waste
Tolstyakova Alina Vitalievna
Student of POVT-15d group,
Perm national research polytechnical university, Berezniki branch
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ul. Telmana, 7, 618404 Berezniki, Perm krai, Russian Federation
Romanchuk Ivan Alexandrovich
Student of POVT-15d group,
Perm national research polytechnical university, Berezniki branch
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ul. Telmana, 7, 618404 Berezniki, Perm krai, Russian Federation
Abstract. The urgency of research of influence of various factors on the level of
formation of production and consumption wastes in Russia is described. State-space model
was chosen and built. It describes the dynamics of generation of waste and the influence on
it of such factors as the number of large and medium-sized enterprises and organizations in
the Russian Federation, investments aimed at protecting of the environment, putting in operation
capacities to protect water resources and atmospheric air, the amount of costs for environmental
protection, population size and output of goods and services by economic activity. Based on
the prognosis of selected factors, a prognosis of the level of production and consumption
waste was obtained. The patterns of changes in the dynamics of waste generation were
determined depending on the volume of costs for environmental protection and the number of
inputting capacities for protecting the hydrosphere and the atmosphere.
Key words: mathematical modeling, prognostication, fertility, production and consumption
waste, model, factor, “ex-post” prognosis.
 Tolstyakova_Romanchuk.pdf |